At a Glance
- Hotter-than-average conditions are expected from the Gulf Coast to the Southwest, and also in the far northern tier.
- The Southwest is most likely to be above average.
- Odds are tilted toward a cooler than average month in parts of the mid-Atlantic, central Plains and California.
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July temperatures could be a continuation of what we've seen in June with hotter than average conditions for the Southwest and near average or cooler temperatures in the central United States, according to an updated outlook released Friday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2.
An unusually warm July is predicted for the Southwest. Temperatures are expected to be much hotter than what's typical during July in the Southwest. This is because we expect to see a continuation of the split flow jet stream pattern from June, with a heat dome of high pressure centered over parts of the Southwest.
It may also be hot near the Canadian border. Hotter than average temperatures are also expected from parts of the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes into northern New England.
Parts of the West, central U.S. and mid-Atlantic could see slightly cooler than average conditions. Parts of California, especially near the coast, could skew cooler in July. Our outlook also suggests the Central Plains and mid-Atlantic region from southern Pennsylvania to North Carolina could also be a tad cooler than usual in July.
In the central Plains, one reason for this cooler July could also be a wetter July. As long as any thunderstorms aren't destructive or don't produce too much rainfall, that would be welcomed news for the severe to exceptional drought.
There is some uncertainty in this outlook. The emergence of a negative NAO blocking pattern could cause warmer than average conditions to shift farther north. There is also uncertainty about where the most anomalous temperatures will be within the split pattern that's expected to continue through mid-July.
"There is no reason to expect massive temperature pattern changes in July, but the exact details are clearly the harder part," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and author of the outlook.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
